48. GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY | GS2 — International Relations

📊 High-Yield Data & Statistical Fact Sheet

• Panchsheel Principles (1954): Five principles of peaceful coexistence forming the bedrock of India's early foreign policy and NAM.
• UNSC Reform claims: India demands permanent membership in UN Security Council under G4 partnership (India, Brazil, Germany, Japan).
• Neighborhood First Policy: prioritizes economic integration, connectivity, and development assistance to SAARC/BIMSTEC neighbors.
• BIMSTEC regional weight: Represents 22% of global population and combined GDP of $4.5 Trillion across 7 member states.
• Act East Policy momentum: Focuses on deep economic, security, and cultural connectivity with ASEAN and East Asian nations.
• Quad Indo-Pacific Coalition: Strategic partnership (India, US, Japan, Australia) promoting a free and open Indo-Pacific maritime space.
• IMEC Connectivity corridor: Transnational ship-to-rail transit network connecting India, Middle East, and Europe.
• Line of Credit (LoC) assistance: India extended developmental assistance lines of credit worth $30+ Billion to partner nations.
• UN Peacekeeping deployments: India remains a top troop contributor, deploying 2.7 Lakh+ personnel in 50+ missions.
• Nuclear Retaliation Doctrine (2003): Built on No First Use (NFU) and Credible Minimum Deterrence under political control.
• SCO Membership status: India joined Shanghai Cooperation Organisation as a full member in 2017 at Astana Summit.
• G20 Presidency leadership (2023): Orchestrated New Delhi Declaration, integrating the African Union as a permanent member.
• International Solar Alliance (ISA): Co-founded by India and France in 2015 (HQ in Gurugram), boasting 120+ signatory countries.
• CDRI Disaster Resilience Coalition: India-led global coalition of 39 countries upgrading infrastructure resilience.
• Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI): Launched in 2019 at East Asia Summit to coordinate maritime security and trade.
• India-ASEAN FTA trade volume: Bilateral trade agreement signed in 2009 driving trade volumes past $130 Billion annually.
• Gujral Doctrine Principles: Five principles of non-reciprocal cooperative concessions to smaller South Asian neighbors.
• Look West Policy pivot: Strategically deepens energy, investment, and defense ties with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations.
• Chabahar Port Access: Bilateral agreement with Iran to develop Shahid Beheshti port to access Central Asian trade corridors.
• INSTC Trade Corridor: 7,200 km multi-mode network linking India, Iran, Central Asia, and Russia to bypass traditional routes.

1. INTRODUCTION

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INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

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Geopolitics of Technology: Technology has shifted from an economic enabler to the primary arena of great power competition (replacing territory, energy, and ideology). Key Trend: Structural transition from hyperglobalisation (efficiency-driven) to techno-nationalism (state-driven, resilience-focused, onshored production). Strategic Impact: Geotechnology disputes reshape modern alliances, digital standards, and sovereign borders.

2. FORMS OF GEOPOLITICS

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FORMS OF GEOPOLITICS

FORMS OF GEOPOLITICS

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Territorial: Competition for physical space & resource-rich zones (e.g., South China Sea, Arctic). Energy: Control of resource flows & supply pipelines (e.g., Russia-Ukraine gas transit). Economic: Trade war, tariff hikes, & market access restrictions (e.g., US-China 2025). Technological: Supremacy in frontier tech like AI, 5G, & semiconductors. Ideological: Clashing values & democratic vs authoritarian norms shaping global rules. Geostrategic: Security positioning & military alliances (e.g., QUAD, AUKUS). Data (New): Control over global data flows, localized processing, and AI infrastructure.

3. KEY CONCEPTS & PHRASES FOR MAINS

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KEY CONCEPTS & PHRASES FOR MAINS

KEY CONCEPTS & PHRASES FOR MAINS

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Splinternet: Fragmentation of the internet into distinct national networks (e.g., China's Great Firewall, Russia's RuNet). Digital Sovereignty: A state's authority to control its data, digital laws, and standards (e.g., India's DPDP Act 2023, EU's GDPR, China's PIPL). Data Localisation: Mandating that personal data must be stored and processed domestically (e.g., DPDP Rules 2025). Techno-nationalism: Promoting domestic tech ecosystems and onshoring supply chains for national security. Chokepoint Strategy: Restricting access to critical supply chain nodes (e.g., Dutch ASML lithography, Chinese rare earths) to pressure adversaries. Digital Silk Road: China's BRI component exporting 5G networks, AI surveillance, and digital infrastructure to the Global South. Small Yard, High Fence: US strategy of strictly embargoing narrow, highly critical frontier techs to China while keeping general trade open. Silicon Shield: Taiwan's strategic deterrence; its irreplaceable global role in advanced chip manufacturing (TSMC) deters invasion. AI Diffusion Rule: Biden-era tiered export control framework separating tech into friendly "green zones" vs restricted "red zones".

4. HOW TECHNOLOGY FOSTERS GEOPOLITICAL COOPERATION

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HOW TECHNOLOGY FOSTERS GEOPOLITICAL COOPERATION

HOW TECHNOLOGY FOSTERS GEOPOLITICAL COOPERATION

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Data Sharing & Intel: Real-time signals intelligence sharing (e.g., "Five Eyes" alliance of US, UK, Canada, Australia, NZ). Joint Science Ventures: Multi-nation strategic initiatives (e.g., International Space Station, US-led Artemis Accords joined by India). Cybersecurity Coalitions: Joint defense pacts (e.g., NATO CCDCOE, India-US iCET on AI, quantum, and space). Trade Integration: Multilateral frameworks facilitating cross-border flows (e.g., CPTPP, India-EU Trade & Technology Council). Global Standards: Harmonising technical and environmental rules (e.g., ITU telecom standards, Paris Agreement clean-tech). Digital Diplomacy: Multi-lateral forums building governance frameworks (e.g., G20 Digital Economy WG, Bletchley Park AI Safety Summit 2023).

5. US–CHINA TECH WAR: THE CENTRAL STORY OF OUR TIMES (Critical for Mains)

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US–CHINA TECH WAR: THE CENTRAL STORY OF OUR TIMES (Critical for Mains)

US–CHINA TECH WAR: THE CENTRAL STORY OF OUR TIMES (Critical for Mains)

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Detail the concepts and significance of 1 Background & Timeline.	5.1 Background & Timeline The US–China semiconductor tensions have evolved into a high-stakes competition for dominance over the foundational tech powering modern economies & future innovations like AI. This strategy, which began escalating in 2022 with sweeping export controls, has seen multiple expansions through 2023, 2024, & 2025, aiming to limit China's ability to develop advanced computing techs. 2018: Huawei placed on US Restricted Entity List (May 2019); tariffs on USD 50 bn Chinese goods 2022: CHIPS & Science Act (USA); sweeping semiconductor export controls on China 2023: Tighter export controls; Japan & Netherlands brought into coalition Dec 2024: Controls expanded to 24 types of chip-making equipment & 3 critical software tools Jan 2025: Biden's AI Diffusion Rule — tiered access to AI chips based on geopolitical alignment Mar 2025: Trump admin blacklisted dozens of Chinese entities from semiconductor trade Apr 2025: Trump banned sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China — cost Nvidia ~USD 4.5 bn write-down Aug 2025: Trump reversed ban — offered Nvidia/AMD export licenses in exchange for 15% revenue cut to US govt Sep 2025: China banned its companies from purchasing H20 chips in retaliation Nov 2025: US banned Nvidia's B30A chips to China
Detail the concepts and significance of 2 The DeepSeek Moment — A Geopolitical Earthquake (Jan 2025).	5.2 The DeepSeek Moment — A Geopolitical Earthquake (Jan 2025) On 20 January 2025, DeepSeek released its flagship reasoning model, DeepSeek R1, claiming to perform on par with those of leading American tech firms such as OpenAI, at significantly lower cost and requiring far less computing power. China's restricted access to cutting-edge chips had led many to doubt its ability to develop a frontier AI model; the release of DeepSeek's model has challenged those assumptions, calling into question the effectiveness of the US's "small yard, high fence" strategy. DeepSeek R1 (20 Jan 2025): China's frontier reasoning AI model, performing on par with US OpenAI models at a fraction of cost and compute. Global Impact: Nvidia lost USD 600 bn in market value overnight (largest single-day drop); Alphabet/Microsoft lost USD 100 bn / USD 7 bn. Efficiency: Trained on 2,000 chips (vs Meta's 16,000 chips), challenging US "small yard, high fence" strategy. Bans/Restrictions: Banned/restricted by Italy, Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Canada over data sovereignty.
Detail the concepts and significance of 3 Chip 4 Alliance & Technology Blocs.	5.3 Chip 4 Alliance & Technology Blocs Chip 4 (Fab 4): USA, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan — controls 70–80% of global semiconductor production. China's Counter-Strategy: "Made in China 2025", "the Big Fund", SMIC + Huawei collaboration, targeting 50% domestic chip tool self-sufficiency by late 2025.
Detail the concepts and significance of 4 Rare Earths as Geopolitical Weapons.	5.4 Rare Earths as Geopolitical Weapons Supply Dominance: China controls ~60% of global rare earth production and ~85% of processing. Retaliation (2025): Beijing restricted exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite in response to US chip controls; partially resumed in mid-2025 talks.

6. INDIA & THE GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY

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INDIA & THE GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY

INDIA & THE GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY

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Detail the concepts and significance of 1 India's Strategic Position.	6.1 India's Strategic Position Democratic Advantage: English-speaking workforce & rule-of-law framework makes it a preferred partner for the US-led bloc. Multi-alignment: Cooperating with US via iCET (2022) and the Quad Semiconductor Initiative while preserving strategic autonomy.
Detail the concepts and significance of 2 India's Semiconductor Mission (ISM) — Detailed Current Affairs.	6.2 India's Semiconductor Mission (ISM) — Detailed Current Affairs ISM Approved Investments (USD Billion) Loading chart... Global Semiconductor Market (USD Billion) Loading chart... Source: Semicon India 2025 / MeitY / World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS). Key Insight: The Indian Semiconductor Mission (ISM) has mobilized over USD 15 Billion in approved projects, led by the landmark Tata-PSMC Fab in Dholera (USD 10.96 Billion). This domestic push runs parallel to a rapid expansion of the global semiconductor market, which is projected to surpass USD 2 Trillion by 2032, driving intense geostrategic competition. Market Size: Valued at USD 38 bn (2023), projected to hit USD 45-50 bn (2024-25), and USD 100-110 bn by 2030. Semicon India 2025: PM Modi described chips as "digital diamonds"; announced 10 projects in motion with investments over USD 18 bn (₹1.5 lakh crore). PLI Funding: ₹76,000 cr PLI scheme, with ₹65,000 cr already committed.
Analyze key facts and concepts related to Key ISM Approved Projects:.	Key ISM Approved Projects: Tata Electronics + PSMC (Taiwan): ₹91,000 cr (USD 10.96 bn) | Dholera, Gujarat | First major chip fab (50,000 wafers/month). Micron Technology (USA): ₹22,516 cr (USD 2.75 bn) | Sanand, Gujarat | ATMP/packaging facility. CG Power + Renesas (Japan) + Stars Micro (Thailand): ₹7,600 cr (USD 915 mn) | Sanand, Gujarat | OSAT facility (operational in Aug 2025). Kaynes Semicon: ₹3,307 cr (USD 398 mn) | Sanand, Gujarat | OSAT — 6.33 mn chips/day capacity (first modules shipped Oct 2025). HCL–Foxconn JV: ₹3,700 cr (USD 446 mn) | Jewar, UP | OSAT (20,000 wafers/month). Lam Research (USA): USD 1+ bn | Karnataka | Semiconductor tool engineering and training. AMD (USA): USD 400 mn | Bengaluru | World's largest global design centre.
Analyze key facts and concepts related to ISM Strengths & Challenges:.	ISM Strengths & Challenges: Incentives: Central government covers 50% of project cost; states like Gujarat add 40% capital subsidy. Human Capital: Design Linked Incentive (DLI) and Chips to Startup (C2S) targeting 85,000 design engineers. Chokepoints: Weak domestic ecosystem for raw wafers, specialty chemicals, ultrapure water; indigenous Vikram processor uses mature 180nm CMOS technology (vs cutting-edge 3nm/5nm globally).
Detail the concepts and significance of 3 India's IT Sector & Digital Economy.	6.3 India's IT Sector & Digital Economy IT Market Share: India's IT services market is USD 227 bn (vs USD 3.94 tn global). Projections: Digital economy to reach USD 1 tn by 2025 (NASSCOM). Design Talent: India hosts 20% of the world's semiconductor design workforce. AI Infrastructure: IndiaAI Mission plans to establish computing infrastructure with 18,000+ GPUs.
Detail the concepts and significance of 4 India's Data Protection: DPDP Act 2023 & DPDP Rules 2025.	6.4 India's Data Protection: DPDP Act 2023 & DPDP Rules 2025 DPDP Act (Aug 2023): India's first comprehensive privacy law following the K.S. Puttaswamy case (2017) recognizing privacy under Article 21. DPDP Rules (13 Nov 2025): Notified to operationalize a stringent consent-based digital personal data regime. Key Provisions: Data Protection Board of India: Established with power to levy penalties up to ₹250 crore per violation. Significant Data Fiduciaries (SDFs): Special entities with higher compliance obligations. Phased Implementation: Stage 1 (Nov 2025), Stage 2 (Nov 2026), Full compliance (May 2027). Exemptions: Wide government exemptions for national security, public order, and foreign relations.
Detail the concepts and significance of 5 Challenges in Technology Leveraging.	6.5 Challenges in Technology Leveraging Digital Divide: Only ~55% of India's population has regular internet access; stark rural-urban and gender gaps. Cybersecurity: India ranks in the top 5 targets globally (AIIMS ransomware attack 2022, SBI breaches). Fake News: India is the top source of misinformation globally (Meta Transparency Report 2024). Brain Drain: Emigration of STEM graduates (1.5 mn produced annually) to USA, UK, Canada.

7. GEOPOLITICS OF INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY (AI, Data & Power)

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GEOPOLITICS OF INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY (AI, Data & Power)

GEOPOLITICS OF INFORMATION & TECHNOLOGY (AI, Data & Power)

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Detail the concepts and significance of 1 AI as a Geopolitical Tool.	7.1 AI as a Geopolitical Tool Global AI Investment: Goldman Sachs estimated global AI investment at USD 200 bn in 2025. Semiconductor Market Scale: Valued at USD 681 bn (2024), growing to USD 755 bn (2025) and USD 2,062 bn by 2032 (15.4% CAGR). Research Shift: China is now the second-ranked AI research power (Stanford AI Vibrancy Index), ahead of the EU. The Three Blocks of AI Governance: USA: Market-driven, national security focus (AI Diffusion Rule). EU: Rights-based, heavily regulated (AI Act 2024, GDPR). China: State-directed, mandatory CCP ideological alignment (PIPL).
Detail the concepts and significance of 2 Critical Technology Geopolitics.	7.2 Critical Technology Geopolitics Advanced Chips: TSMC (Taiwan controls >90% of 3nm production), Intel (US), Samsung (Korea), SMIC (China). Telecom Infrastructure: Huawei (China) vs Ericsson (Sweden) & Nokia (Finland). Quantum Computing: Breakpoint for current encryption standards (US, China, India, EU). Data Routes: Undersea cables (Google, Meta, Huawei Marine) control ~95% of global data traffic.
Detail the concepts and significance of 3 Data as the 'New Oil'.	7.3 Data as the "New Oil" Platform Monopolies: US firms (Google, Meta, MS, Amazon) dominate global data collection. China's Sovereign Model: Data localization, Great Firewall, national champions (Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba). Global South Dilemma: Choosing between US platforms or Chinese infrastructure vs. building sovereign alternatives (India's UPI, Aadhaar, ONDC).

8. CONCERNS IN GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY

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CONCERNS IN GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY

CONCERNS IN GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY

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Backdoors & Espionage: Global bans on Huawei/ZTE. India banned 267 Chinese apps (including TikTok, WeChat) post-Galwan (2020-22). Weaponisation: Autonomous weapons, drone swarms, and AI cyber warfare. China's "civil-military fusion" integrates commercial AI directly into military logistics. Political Manipulation: AI deepfakes and algorithmic echo chambers used to influence elections (e.g., Lok Sabha 2024).

9. INDIA'S POLICY & GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES

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INDIA'S POLICY & GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES

INDIA'S POLICY & GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES

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ISM (2021): USD 10 bn program; 50% capex subsidy; USD 18 bn in 10 approved projects. iCET (2022): India-US Initiative on Critical & Emerging Technologies. PLI Electronics: ₹41,000 cr scheme for mobile, IT hardware, and chip packaging. IndiaAI Mission (2024): 18,000+ GPU capacity; 6 foundational AI models by late 2025. National Supercomputing Mission (NSM): Building domestic supercomputing capacity (India ranks 13th in TOP500). Digital India: Expanded internet user base to 900 mn (2024).

10. WAY FORWARD

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WAY FORWARD

WAY FORWARD

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Detail the concepts and significance of 1 For India.	10.1 For India Boost R&D Spending: Scale up R&D from current 0.64% of GDP to at least 2% (vs South Korea's 4.9%, China's 2.4%). Digital Diplomacy: Export UPI, Aadhaar, and ONDC (the "India Tech Model") to the Global South to build a non-aligned digital block. Dedicated AI Legislation: Introduce a comprehensive AI Act to regulate deepfakes, automated bias, and AI safety beyond the DPDP Act.
Detail the concepts and significance of 2 Global Governance.	10.2 Global Governance Antitrust Rules: Implement strict limits on platform monopolies (like EU's GDPR and Digital Markets Act). Multilateral Accords: Establish a Global AI Safety Treaty building on the Bletchley Declaration (2023). ITU Reforms: Balance geopolitical influence in the UN International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to keep standards democratic.

11. CONCLUSION

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CONCLUSION

CONCLUSION

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The global order is splintering into a bipolar, fragmented tech architecture led by the US-led democratic bloc on one side and China's Digital Silk Road on the other. Semiconductors have become the equivalent of nuclear capabilities in modern defense. For India, the primary challenge is to build genuine digital sovereignty and domestic chip fabs to prevent becoming a tech colony, cementing its position as a third pole in the global tech order by Viksit Bharat 2047.

12. IMPORTANT PYQs (UPSC Mains)

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IMPORTANT PYQs (UPSC Mains)

IMPORTANT PYQs (UPSC Mains)

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"The US–China tech war is no longer a bilateral issue — it is reshaping global alliances and forcing every nation to choose sides." Analyse with reference to India's position. "Discuss the significance of semiconductors in global geopolitics. How is India positioning itself in the global semiconductor supply chain?" "Data is the new oil. Examine how control over data and digital infrastructure is reshaping international power dynamics." "What is the 'Splinternet'? Examine the threats it poses to global digital governance."

13. QUICK REVISION BOX

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• Splinternet: Fragmented internet (Great Firewall of China; RuNet of Russia).
• Digital Sovereignty: National data control (DPDP 2023, GDPR, PIPL).
• Chip 4 Alliance: US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.
• DeepSeek R1 (Jan 2025): China's highly efficient reasoning model; challenged US export control paradigm; erased USD 600 bn from Nvidia.
• India ISM Approved Fabs: Tata-PSMC Dholera (USD 10.96 bn); Micron Sanand (USD 2.75 bn); CG Power Sanand (USD 915 mn); Kaynes Sanand (USD 398 mn).
• DPDP Rules (Nov 2025): Consent-based rules; Data Protection Board can levy ₹250 cr penalties.
• iCET: India-US Initiative on Critical & Emerging Technologies (2022).
• Silicon Shield: Taiwan's strategic deterrence via advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
• Rare Earths chokepoint: China controls ~60% of production; restricted gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite in 2025.
• Techno-nationalism: Policies prioritizing domestic manufacturing and sovereign tech supply chains.
• Rare earths are a subset of critical minerals comprising 17 metallic elements from lanthanum (57) to lutetium (71), plus scandium (21) and yttrium (39), used in weapons platforms, electronics, wind turbines, robotics, EVs, MRI scanners and cancer treatment devices.
• India imported 2,270 tonnes of rare earth elements in 2023-24, up 23% from 1,848 tonnes in 2019-20; imports from China accounted for 65% and 10% came from Hong Kong.
• Minerals are classified as 'critical' based on two parameters: importance for economic development/national security, and lack of availability; India has identified 30 critical minerals including antimony, cobalt, copper, gallium, germanium, graphite, lithium, nickel, rare earth elements, titanium, and tungsten (uranium is not on India's list).
• Chinas Digital Silk Road promotes Chinese digital standards, technologies and digital-economy investments in partner countries, with cooperation on AI, IoT, big data and quantum computing.
• Pax Silica is a new US-led strategic initiative to build a secure supply chain from critical minerals and energy inputs to advanced manufacturing and semiconductors; India is not part of it.
• Inaugural Pax Silica Washington DC Summit brought together Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Netherlands, UK, Israel, UAE and Australia (with Taiwan, EU, Canada and OECD as guests) to build a secure silicon supply chain covering semiconductors, ICT systems, fibre-optic cables, data centres and foundational AI models; Netherlands is essential for chip lithography machines.
• India was inducted in 2023 into the US-led Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), which catalyses public/private investment in critical mineral supply chains; MSP partners include Australia, Canada, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Sweden, UK, US and the EU, focused on cobalt, nickel, lithium and the 17 rare earth minerals.
• Rare earth magnets like neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) are essential for EV motors, power steering, wipers and braking systems; China holds a near-monopoly on their production and leads in efficient rare earth processing despite global raw material availability.
• India is heavily dependent on China for synthetic and natural graphite; Mozambique, Madagascar, Brazil and Tanzania are top graphite-producing nations.
• China proposed establishing a World AI Cooperation Organization at the APEC summit to govern AI development, set international rules and foster collaboration among nations; APEC also adopted an AI Initiative for 2026-2030.
• AI is classified into Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI/weak AI, designed for specific tasks) and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI/strong AI, aiming to replicate human cognitive abilities across any intellectual task).